Declining birth rates - should we worry?

Are declining birth rates one of the biggest threats to humanity? Among others, Elon Musk and Donald Trump's vice-presidential candidate JD Vance seem to think so. But Karim Jebari disagrees. In the program Epstein in P1, he explains why we don't need to worry so much.

Last year, the birth rate per woman in Sweden was the lowest ever recorded: 1.45. To maintain a stable population, around 2.1 children per woman are needed. In the long run, the current birth rate will result in a population of zero. And the path there will be marked by societal problems and difficulties in supporting an increasingly aging population.

But even though this is a global trend, there's no significant reason for alarmism, according to Karim Jebari.

"Take Japan and South Korea, which have had very low birth rates for a very long time. Their growth is indeed somewhat lower than it would have been with higher birth rates, but they are still highly functioning countries. There's no ongoing collapse," says Karim Jebari.

Several factors can compensate for low birth rates.

"At the same time as we've seen lower birth rates, the health of the older population has improved, and people are working longer. We've raised the retirement age. This affects the consequences of low birth rates," says Karim Jebari in Epstein in P1.

Increased access to assisted reproduction, where parents can choose the sex of the child, can also compensate for decreased overall birth rates. With more women in the population, the birth rate can be lower than 2.1 children per woman without the population decreasing.

"There is a trend that more people want daughters, and with methods to choose the gender, this could eventually lead to more women in the population," says Karim Jebari.

Another factor often highlighted in these discussions is immigration.

"But that's only a short-term solution, as the fertility of immigrants quickly adapts to that of the rest of the population. Also, if immigration occurs from countries that also have low birth rates, it only solves the problem at the expense of another country," says Karim Jebari.