Hammar, Olle Elinder, Mikael & Oscar Erixson | 2024
Delmi Report 2024:11
This report investigates how migration aspirations within the Russian population have evolved following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022. It primarily focuses on the impact of the war and how changes in political conditions, including support for the Russian government, have affected people’s willingness to leave the country. For this purpose, it draws on data from the Gallup World Poll (GWP), which surveyed over 30,000 individuals in Russia between 2008 and 2023 about their migration aspirations as well as their political sentiments and socioeconomic and demographic characteristics.
Key findings:
1. Changes in migration aspirations: The invasion of Ukraine caused a significant decrease in the desire of Russians to emigrate. In 2021, 20 percent of Russians expressed a desire to leave the country, but by late 2022, this number had dropped to 12 percent. While conflict and economic sanctions usually spur emigration, Russia appears to have become more attractive to many citizens.
2. Preferred destinations: Historically, Western countries like Germany and the United States were top destinations for Russians. However, after the invasion, preferences shifted towards non-Western countries like China and Turkey.
3. Political and social context: Following the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the 2022 invasion, a surge of patriotism occurred in Russia. Support for President Vladimir Putin increased, and many citizens began viewing Russia as a better place to live compared to prior years. These sentiments may have led to the reduced migration aspirations, with citizens rallying around the leadership.
4. Demographics of potential migrants: The Russians who are more likely to consider emigration are typically young, male, highly educated, and employed. There was a noted change after the invasion, with those willing to leave being more likely to reside in major cities like Moscow and Saint Petersburg and less likely to have children.
5. Military mobilization effects: The September 2022 military mobilization in Russia, targeting young men for conscription, caused a temporary spike in migration aspirations among the targeted age group, although this effect was limited compared to overall trends.
In summary, the report shows how migration aspiration have shifted in Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. While many expected an increase in emigration, the data show that nationalist sentiments, restrictions on movement, and a rally effect around the Russian leadership have likely reduced the overall desire to leave the country.
