Jebari, Karim , Engström, Emma | 2024
Institute for Futures Studies Working Paper 2024:18
We stipulate a normatively desirable scenario for food production in 2100 and identify a technology-centered path to attain it. The target outcome is that the human population has increased following anticipated mainstream projections, and that the impacts on land systems, biosphere integrity, freshwater use, and eutrophying emissions are substantially reduced as compared to current levels. These reflect four planetary boundaries that are closely linked to agriculture. We consider the current average global diet and categorize the food into three groups: (1) fruits and vegetables, (2) grains, and (3) animal products, which together make up around nine-tenth (91%) of the human diet. In each group, we identify one disruptive technology with the potential to substantially contribute to achieve the desirable scenario: (1) vertical farming for fruits and vegetables; (2) genetically modified crops for improved photosynthesis of grains; and (3) realistic plant and microbe-based substitutes for animal products. Assuming widespread adoption of these technologies in 2100, we project that the area of farmland, the amount of freshwater, and the emissions of eutrophying substances would be reduced by 54%, 46%, and 32%, respectively, as compared to current levels. We discuss policies and adoption challenges related to their implementation, finding that some behavioral changes, mainly regarding acceptance of alternatives to animal food products and genetically modified organisms, are necessary to attain the target. Notably, abundant access to fossil-free energy is a crucial prerequisite for at least two of the proposed technologies. We conclude that the “electrify-everything” road to sustainability that is well-established in other sectors also holds for food.
