How come today’s conservatives are more liberal than yesterday’s liberals? Why has the public opinion in large parts of the world shifted so rapidly in favor of gay and lesbian rights, but been virtua

Today, moral questions tend to become more important to voters in many countries. Is it possible to understand - and predict - how the public opinion changes on moral issues?

Systemic risk models as a policy prediction tool with Anders Sandberg

Presentation at the workshop "AI and autonomous decision making" at the Institute for Futures Studies in Stockholm, October 2017.

Anna Dreber Almenberg, Professor of Economics, Stockholm School of EconomicsAbstractWhy are there so many false results in the published scientific literature? And what is the actual share of results

Completed: Predicting the diffusion of artificial intelligence

A framework for predicting the spread of AI applications.

Research seminar with Jens Finnäs (J++), Måns Magnusson (Assistant Professor in statistics at Uppsala University), and Jonas Wallin (Associate Professor at Lund University).   Register In the Swedish elect

Royal Society Open Science, vol. 9, issue 4 Abstract The General Social Survey, conducted every 2 years, measures public opinion on a wide range of moral issues. The data from the 2020 survey are expect

Substance Use & Misuse, doi.org/10.1080/10826084.2018.1517172. AbstractBackground: Alcohol use in adolescence predicts future alcohol misuse. However, the extent to which different patterns of adol This study investigated how adolescent trajectories of alcohol consumption during the school years predict alcohol misuse at age 19 years. Data were drawn from 707 students from Victoria, Australia, longitudinally followed for 7 years. Five alcohol use trajectories were identified based on the frequency of alcohol use from Grade 6 (age 12 years) to Grade 11 (age 17 years). At age 19 years, participants completed measures indicating Heavy Episodic Drinking (HED), dependency – Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and social harms. At 19 years of age, 64% of participants reported HED, 42% high AUDIT scores (8+), and 23% social harms. Participants belonging to a steep escalator trajectory during adolescence had twice the odds at 19 years of age of high AUDIT scores and social harms, and three times greater odds of HED than participants whose alcohol use slowly increased. Stable moderate consumption was also associated with an increased risk of HED compared to slowly increasing use. Abstinence predicted a reduced likelihood of all forms of misuse at 19 years of age compared to slowly increased alcohol use. Trajectories of drinking frequency during adolescence predict alcohol misuse at age 19 years. Although rapid increasing use presents the greatest risk, even slowly increasing drinking predicts increased risk compared to abstinence. The findings indicate that alcohol policies should recommend nonuse and reduced frequency of use during adolescence.

British Journal of Social Psychology Abstract Throughout the literature, there are assertions that those endorsing conservative ideologies reject the science and solutions of climate change due to perce

This paper uses demographic projections of age structure and correlations with GDP and GDP growth to study the forecasting properties of demographically based models. Extending the forecasts to 2050 s